Kickoff Zone College Football Blog

It’s finally here.  College football officially begins tonight with Southern Miss traveling to Columbus, SC to face off with the University of South Carolina  Gamecocks.  Unlike some BCS programs, South Carolina usually opens their season against a decent midmajor program, and Southern Miss is one of the most consistent winners among that category.  Our #1st edition of this season’s Kickoff weekly newsletter has only a 4.8 point difference in the two programs power ratings to open the year, which would indicate that it may be a tough game for the favored Gamecocks.

Were one to pay attention to all the news throughout the spring and summer concerning South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback Stephen Garcia, you could be forgiven to think that this former prized prospect has been the recruiting bust of the century.  In fact, that’s not the case at all.  Garcia actually put up some impressive numbers last season.  He ranked 2nd in the SEC in 220 passing yards per game, and 3rd in total offense, averaging 234 total yards per game.  It seems to escape some analysts minds that last season Garcia was a sophomore and in only his first full year as the entrenched starter.  This should be the year that Garcia finally puts everything together with the talent he has returning at WR and the addition of super recruit Marcus Lattimore at running back. 

Tonight may not be a blowout because Southern Miss does have some talent, but the Gamecocks should come out of this game victorious.

Pick: Gamecocks by 6+

Tags: College Football, Marcus Lattimore, NCAA, picks, SEC, South Carolina, southern miss, Stephen Garcia, week one// Category College Football, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, NCAA, Schedule, Southeastern Conference, Stephen Garcia, Steve Spurrier, Top 25, University of South Carolina, University of Southern Miss, bcs, odds // Add Comment »

As most of our readers probably know by this point, Brigham Young University announced that it will leave the MWC and declare itself an independent last night.

It wasn’t a logical move.  I mean… to put it bluntly… who cares?  BYU is not Notre Dame.  They don’t have the Catholic appeal that would attract an NBC to cover their home games, their program does not have the tradition of Notre Dame, nor do they have the backroom muscle of the Irish to strongarm BCS officials into accepting them into a major bowl game.

Even the hometown Salt Lake Tribune seems to be a bit lukewarm on the matter.  Personally, I can’t decide if they are just delusional or delusionally arrogant. 

Don’t get me wrong, BYU has some tradition and history, and can boast of a national championship and stars such as Steve Young and Jim McMahon. 

Our latest issue of the Kickoff has some interesting statistics concerning the winningest programs of each of the past four decades, and if you look at BYU, you just don’t see the type of authority they need to be taken seriously as an independent.  They were the 3rd winningest program of the 1980s, but during that run, they were nationally ranked only 81 out of 159 AP polls that were released during that time period.

In other words, the 3rd winningest program of the 1980s was only ranked in the Top 25 roughly 50% of the decade.  Compare that to Ohio State, the 16th winningest program of the 1980s, but were ranked in 110 out of the 159 AP polls that were released during the decade.  BYU won 79.1% of their games in the 80’s, but were ranked in 50% of the polls.  In comparison, Ohio State won 69% of their games, but were ranked in 69% of the AP polls.  The University of Southern California were the 18th winningest program of the 1980s, winning 67.9% of their games in the 1980s, but were ranked in 72% of the AP polls released.  Even Southern Methodist University were ranked for roughly the same amount of time during BYU’s winningest decade, and SMU had to deal with being handed the “death penalty” by the NCAA during that timeframe.

The point of these statistics is this…  if you don’t have enough respect on a national level, nobody is going to pay attention to you when you aren’t winning conference championships.  Look at the Army and Navy football programs. 

Yes, the ultimate goal of the BYU program is to gain acceptance into the Pac 10, and by becoming an independent, they likely want to prove to the conference powers that be that they carry enough weight on their own to warrant an inclusion.  However that may play out, I don’t see it ever happening.

Tags: bcs, BYU, College Football, expansion, independent, NCAA, notre dame// Category BYU, Brigham Young University, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, Mountain West Conference, NCAA, Notre Dame University, Preseason Prognostications, Schedule, Top 25, bcs, expansion, recap, rumor mill // Add Comment »

The college football season begins tomorrow, so it’s time to get everything out there.  The week one game of the week…

Boise State vs. Virginia Tech (in Landover, MD)

This week’s choice is rather obvious, as it is the only matchup between two top 10 teams and national title contenders.  While Boise State has been talked up as possibly the first team from outside of a BCS conference to play for the national title, Virginia Tech has flown somewhat under the national radar, but are never far from the conversation, and this year they should near the top with the talent they are returning.

Week One Pick- Virginia Tech by 3+  (meaning that I think they will win by at least three points, but maybe a bit more)

It’s not that I think Boise State is overrated, but that Virginia Tech has been criminally underrated by a number of preseason publications, as they would easily be in my Top 5 to start the year.

Tags: Boise State, College Football, College Football Picks, game of the week, NCAA, Virginia Tech// Category Boise State, College Football, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, Nick Saban, Preseason Prognostications, Schedule, The Kickoff, Top 25, Virginia Tech, bcs, odds // Add Comment »

Yesterday, Jeff Sagarin unveiled his preseason rankings for the upcoming college football season.  For those who don’t know who Sagarin is or the weight he carries in the BCS system, here is a refresher:

Jeff Sagarin has been providing power ratings and player ratings to USA TODAY since 1985. A mathematics graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology(1970) and MBA from Indiana University in 1983, Sagarin has applied his unique ranking system to college football, college basketball, Major League Baseball, pro football, pro basketball, pro hockey, volleyball, nascar, soccer and several other sports.Sagarin’s college basketball rankings have proven their value to theNCAA tournament selection committee. Since 1984, Sagarin has supplied the committee — at its request — with his latest rankings at the beginning of the tournament selection process and with regular updates until the selections have been finalized. Sagarin’s rankings form the basis of Play to Win, a unique game of skill and sports knowledge. He and a close-knit circle of friends and colleagues in his Midwestern town have been playing the game, just for fun, for several years. Now, through the World Wide Web, the game goes global. In addition, beginning in the fall of 1998, Jeff’s college football ratings became an official part of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) team selection process.

Here are Sagarin’s Top 25 preseason rankings:

1- Florida 94.84
2- Texas 91.86
3- Alabama 90.81
4- Southern California 90.22
5- Oklahoma 89.40
6- Ohio State 89.27
7- Virginia Tech 87.71
8- LSU- 86.99
9- TCU 86.53
10- Penn State 86.40
11- Oregon 85.51
12- Boise State 85.4
13- Georgia 84.02
14- Texas Tech 83.19
15- Utah 82.61
16- Nebraska 82.5
17- Clemson 82.22
18- Iowa 82.2
19- BYU 82.05
20- West Virginia 82.02
21- Oregon State 81.4
22- Cincinnati 81.27
23- Florida State 80.84
24- California 80.46
25- Georgia Tech 80.46

Like many of the other ranking systems, this one leaves me scratching my head a bit.  He has Georgia Tech all the way down at #25, but Florida and Texas are his top 2 teams after both losing Heisman Trophy candidates at quarterback  (and a former winner in Tim Tebow)?  While Alabama returns last season’s Heisman Trophy Winner, as well as their starting qb and most of their key playmakers, but are ranked #3?  This is probably the lowest I’ve seen Ohio State ranked in any preseason rankings or polls that have been released thus far, and the highest ranking I’ve seen for Southern California.

This is why the BCS recieves the yearly criticism that it does.  Along with the preseason polls, these things have way too much power in choosing who plays for the national title.  In the case of the human polls, people will rely too much on which teams were considered to be title contenders at the beginning of the season, making it more difficult for a team that comes out of nowhere to make the title game.

On the other hand, computer programs have no way of making their decisions by anything other than formulas or mathematical factors, which takes all the human factors out of the processs.

Tags: bcs, College Football, jeff sagarin, NCAA, preseason college football power ratings, preseason top 25// Category College Football, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, Florida Gators, NCAA, Preseason College Football Rankings, Preseason Prognostications, Rankings, Schedule, Top 25, University of Florida, bcs, odds, recap // 1 Comment »

Southern Methodist University has announced that June Jones has extended his contract for two years after a seven win improvement in his second year at the helm.

Coming off an 8-5 season and SMU’s first bowl appearance in 25 years, Head Coach June Jones signed a two-year contract extension Friday that will keep him on the Hilltop through the 2014 season.

In 2009, The Sporting News named Jones Conference USA Coach of the Year.

Jones committed to an additional two years after successfully completing only two years of the five-year, $2 million-a-year contract he signed in 2008.

“Coach Jones has brought a winning culture to our football program, and under his leadership, I know he will soon exceed my goal for the football program here at SMU – and that is to be a perennial Top-25 team,” SMU athletic director Steve Orsini said in a press release.

Jones took over SMU’s football program in 2008 after nine years as head coach for the University of Hawaii. He was 1-11 in his first season at SMU, but rebounded with an NCAA best turnaround last season (plus seven wins).

“I am very excited about the direction of the program and the University, and I’m happy to sign this extension,” Jones said.

Jones is known in the football world as an offensive genius. Prior to coming to SMU, Jones received three National Coach of the Year awards.

Wherever June Jones goes, he wins, and SMU is very lucky to have a coach like him running their program.  It’s only a matter of time before he has them back in the national picture.  Maybe not in the hunt for the BCS title (considering that they are a midmajor), but there’s no reason to believe that he won’t build them up to  the level of a Boise State or TCU.

Tags: College Football, June Jones, NCAA, smu, southern methodist// Category Conference USA, June Jones, NCAA, Preseason Prognostications, Southern Methodist University, rumor mill // Add Comment »

The countdown to the kickoff of the 2010 college football season has finally hit single digits.  This year will be an important one for lots of programs, but perhaps none moreso than LSU’s coach Les Miles.  There is an article that sums up the feelings in Baton Rouge quite well at this link.

After winning the BCS national championship in 2007, Miles and company have recorded seasons of 8-5 and 9-4, and the wolves are out for his football hide in Baton Rouge.

A series of bad judgments with the hiring of assistant coaches, a poor offensive philosophy, fingers being pointed in Miles’ direction for getting involved in offensive play-calling, not properly playing talented underclassmen and sticking with underachieving juniors and seniors has landed Miles on the hot seat, despite a 51-15 record at LSU.

That’s right, the man who led the Bayou Bengals to the BCS Title just a few years ago is apparently on the hot seat.  This season, Miles has added another couple of new faces to his coaching staff, including former Florida WR Coach Billy Gonzales and former Tennessee RB coach Frank Wilson. 

I’m also think Jordan Jefferson will finally perform up to his ability, after an inconsistent season last year as the starting quarterback. 

With Jefferson, it is not a question of talent, but consistency on his part, showing more poise in crucial spots during a game and having an offense geared to playing to his strength.

When Miles dismissed talented, but troubled quarterback Ryan Perrilloux off the team in the spring of 2008, he did the right thing for his team, but what he failed to do was protect his two young quarterbacks in Jefferson and Jarrett Lee with an offense geared more to a run-oriented attack.

Lots of schools have passionate fans who put pressure on a program to perform up to a certain level on a yearly basis.  LSU’s fans, though, may be the most ”hardcore” in major college football.  Nick Saban brought the Tigers back from obscurity, and Miles’ early success continued on that.  These days, LSU always has one of the top recruiting classes in the nation, and the fans believe with all the talent on their squad, Miles should be able to plug in fresh, young players with little drop off. 

Quarterbacks need to be developed slowly, without putting too much pressure on their shoulders when they have yet to gain the experience necessary to make crucial decisions on the playing field.  Jefferson has the talent to be a top flight QB, but offensive coordinator Gary Crowton must tailor the playcalling to suit the strengths of quarterback, and that means developing a consistent running game to balance out the offense.

LSU has always had a stable full of talented running backs, but for some reason, the Tigers have been extremely inconsistent running the football for years, going back to the Saban era.  With the exception of possible exception Jacob Hester, it’s been a long time since LSU has had a running back who had a “great career” running the football.  They’ve had some great seasons, but look at Charles Scott for example, who used up his final year of eligibility last season.  After a great junior campaign two years ago, injuries and inconsistency led to subpar rushing numbers last year, and it wasn’t the first time that LSU has had a RB with that type of career over the last decade.  Personally, I think they need to find one running back and stick with him, instead relying on a committee.

The offensive wildcard is definitely sophomore WR/QB/RB Russell Shepard, who has “seemlessly” made the transition from QB to reciever as he begins his sophomore season.  Along with Shepard, the Tigers return Terrance Tolliver, one of the best recievers in the country, and talented sophomore Reuben Randle.

Before last season, Les Miles was forced to replace his DCs after subpar campaigns, but he made a brilliant move in hiring John Chavis.  On defense-

the Tigers are led by two All-American candidates in cornerback Patrick Peterson, the best cover-cornerback in the SEC since Champ Bailey was at the University of Georgia, and linebacker Kelvin Sheppard, who is capable of playing any of the three linebacker spots on defense.

One thing that may play in the Tigers favor this season is that though they are not quite as experienced as the Gators or the Crimson Tide, they should get off to a hot start with a game against nationally ranked UNC, a program in a whole lot of trouble at the moment.

Tags: bcs, College Football, Hot Seat, jordan jefferson, Les Miles, LSU, NCAA, preseason prediction, SEC, tigers, week 1// Category College Football, College Football Power Rankings, Hot Seat, LSU, Les Miles, Louisiana State University, NCAA, Preseason College Football Rankings, Preseason Prognostications, Schedule, Southeastern Conference, Top 25, bcs, recap, rumor mill // 1 Comment »

Every summer, numerous preseason football magazines hit the newsstands, and likewise, every summer one Phil Steele has a pick so completely out of left field that you can only be left scratching your head at what is either brilliant or completely insane.

Mr. Steele

This year is no different.  Steele has made his reputation with accurate picks and a writing style that reminds one of the old MicroMachines commercials that were popular in the 1980s (click link for an example).

With his lightning quick prose, Mr. Steele tends to be a bit of a self promoter at times, and won’t ever let you forget when one of his “out of left field“ picks turns out to be correct.  To be fair, he never takes all the credit… he is always willing to give credit to his trusty computer and his top secret formulas for predicting success on the football field. 

This year, some are beginning to wonder if Phil has finally crossed that line… the one that seperates brilliance from the straight jacket, with his pick for the national champion… the Oklahoma Sooners.

Mr. Steele's "beautiful mind" at work?

 We here at the Kickoffzone blog are in awe.  The Oklahoma Sooners?  The same Oklahoma that has lost it’s last 5 BCS Bowl games?  Don’t get me wrong, this piece is written with the greatest respect for Mr. Steele, as his magazine is always one of the best (along with our own Kickoff Preseason Magazine, which can be ordered here), but… me thinks Phil has lost his mind on this one.

Tags: College Football, College Football Power Rankings, NCAA, Oklahoma sooners, phil steele, preseason rankings, Top 25// Category Big XII Conference, College Football, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, NCAA, Oklahoma University, Preseason College Football Rankings, Preseason Prognostications, Rankings, Schedule, The Kickoff, Top 25, Uncategorized, bcs // 2 Comments »

New head coach Joker Phillips has chosen Mike Hartline to begin the season as his starting quarterback.

Phillips had this to say about his quarterback situation:

“We feel that we have three quarterbacks that we can win with in this league,” Kentucky coach Joker Phillips said. “We feel comfortable with all three of them, and that is a good problem to have. Right now, we feel that Mike Hartline gives us the best chance to win. He has been more efficient and is playing faster than the other two.”

The other two were sophomore Morgan Newton and redshirt freshman Ryan Mossakowski.

And while there was a push among some fans for the Wildcats to go with a youth movement, Hartline’s experience was the difference.

Tags: bcs, College Football, Kentucky, mike hartline, morgan newton, NCAA, preseason, SEC// Category College Football, NCAA, Preseason Prognostications, Schedule, Southeastern Conference, University of Kentucky, bcs // Add Comment »

There is a great article on Terrelle Pryor over at NCAA Fanhouse that is worth reading.

Since last season, I have not been that high on Pryor’s ability to lead the Buckeyes to a national championship this year because of his inconsistent play on the field throughout his career at Ohio State.  In some games, he would look brilliant, but then awful in others.

From all reports coming out of preseason camp, Pryor has improved his decision making a great deal and has looked like a leader on the field.  Like the Fanhouse article stated, Pryor may never look great throwing the football, but his speed and ability to make plays with his feet are more than enough to compensate for it.  Will he win the Heisman this year?  I am skeptical, but he may very well be able to be the leader the Buckeyes need to lead them back to the BCS Title Game.

Tags: big 10, College Football, heisman trophy, NCAA, Ohio State, preseason college football, Terrelle Pryor// Category All-Conference, Big 10 Conference, Heisman Watch, NCAA, Ohio State University, Preseason Prognostications, Terrelle Pryor, Top 25, recap // 1 Comment »

The latest hot rumour in college football is the hot off the press story regarding the BYU Cougars, as they decide whether or not they will declare their independence from being tied to a conference.

This decision lies in the hope that they follow Notre Dame’s path to power (at least in the backroom sense), wherein they are promised, if not guaranteed a spot in a BCS Bowl game.  From ESPN.com:

Rival Utah’s move to the Pac-10 has given BYU the impetus to seriously explore the possibility of leaving the Mountain West, going independent in football and re-joining the WAC in all other sports, multiple sources told ESPN.com Tuesday.

BYU, according to sources, was stunned that an invitation didn’t come its way as the Pac-10 first invited the Big 12’s Colorado and then turned to Utah to become the Pac-12 earlier this summer. The Big 12, which lost Nebraska to the Big Ten as well, decided to stay with 10 members for 2012 and beyond after Texas decided to stay put instead of going to the Pac-10.

According to sources, BYU wants to differentiate itself from Utah, and by making itself the Notre Dame of the West, it could become a national power. Notre Dame is a football independent and in the Big East for all other sports.

Bad idea, if you ask me… BYU does have a great tradition in college football, especially for a team not in a “major conference,” but it is a bit egotistical to think that BYU will be able to wield the type of authority that the University of Notre Dame does in backroom deals, considering that a major network carries the Irish home games and the fact that they are generally considered one of, if not the, most dominant traditional powers in the history of college football.

Tags: breaking news, BYU, College Football, independent, NCAA// Category BYU, Brigham Young University, College Football, Conference realignment, Live Update, NCAA, Preseason Prognostications, Schedule, Top 25, bcs, recap, rumor mill // Add Comment »