Kickoff Zone College Football Blog

Today, we look at our 4th round of teams, which are teams that are considered outside contenders by the oddsmakers.   They have a chance, albiet a small one, to win the BCS Title next season, but will likely need some help to even get to the game.   Here’s a quick recap of how the teams are ranked so far in the first 3 rounds:

1- Alabama, 2- Ohio State, 3- Boise State, 4- Southern California, 5- Florida, 6- Texas, 7- Nebraska, 8- Virginia Tech

Remember that these college football power rankings are not using the Kickoff’s rating system, nor are they even my personal rankings.  This particular order is decided purely by the Vegas oddsmakers, and who they consider to be the best bets to win the BCS title next season.

Round 4:  The Outsiders

Next up with odds of  16:1 are the Oklahoma Sooners.  The Sooners had a subpar season last year, but most experts would point out that it was due to the injuries to QB Sam Bradford, who went on to be the #1 pick in the NFL draft.  Overall, the Sooners lose 4 players who were taken in the first round, and 7 total players who were selected in the NFL draft.  They do return RB DeMarco Murray, and most people expect QB Landry Jones to keep maturing after filling in for the injured Bradford last season.  While Oklahoma always reloads, it’s hard to see them winning it all,  but with Texas losing star QB Colt McCoy and his top reciever Jordan Shipley, OU could find themselves in the Big 12 driver’s seat.

Following the Sooners with odds of 18:1 are the TCU Horned Frogs.  While one could make an argument for Boise State being a top contender, TCU would need a lot of help to even get to the title game.  In all likelihood, it won’t happen.  However, they are still the most talented team in the Mountain West, and they return the league’s offensive POY in QB Andy Dalton.  Defensively, they lose star DE Jerry Hughes, but have more than enough talent to make up for it.  They also have a favorable schedule next season, at this point, with their only out of conference games against Oregon State and SMU, both of which are winnable.

That wraps up the Top 10 going into next season, according to the oddsmakers.  Next we will look at the teams with a very long shot at playing for the BCS title.

Tags: College Football, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, NCAA, Oklahoma University, Preseason College Football Rankings, Preseason Prognostications, Rankings, Texas Christian University, recap by Tommy
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Our college football power rankings breakdown, which is more of a “look-ahead” towards the upcoming season by breaking down the current odds for teams to win the BCS, continues with Round 3.  In this round, we look at teams who are “the other contenders.”  These teams are not overwhelming favorites like those in Round 1, and aren’t necessarily the next in line like the ones in round 2.  They are the teams who could easily find themselves playing for a national championship if one of the teams in front of them falters, at least according to the odds.

Round 3:  The Other Contenders

Round 3 begins with a team that whose odds are 15:1- the University of Nebraska.  How the Cornhuskers find themselves with odds this high is beyond me.  They were a solid, but not spectacular, team last season with one superstar defensive lineman… who graduated.  They return most of their key players on the offensive side of the ball, but they weren’t all that impressive offensively when playing quality opponents.  In their favor, they do return QB Zach Lee and their leading rusher.  They also return most of their defense as well, with the exception of DT Ndamukong Suh.

Following the Cornhuskers with odds of 17:1 are the Virginia Tech Hokies.  Unlike Nebraska, there’s little doubt about Va. Tech’s returning talent.  Personally, I consider them to be a Top 6 team heading into next season with a real shot at playing for the BCS title.  On the offensive side of the ball, the Hokies are… loaded.  There are at least 3 players who could be considered Heisman contenders going into next season, although their running backs will likely have to split carries.  Tyrod Taylor has slowly matured into an excellent QB, and should be a household name by next season.  Va Tech returns their leading rushers from the last two seasons.  In 2008, Darren Evans rushed for 1265 yards as a true freshman,   and going into last season, he was expected to be one of the best tailbacks in the country, but an injury forced him to redshirt.  In his place, true freshman Ryan Williams rushed for 1538 yards.  With both of their tailbacks healthy and their top two leading recievers from last year all returning, Tech will be loaded on offense.  Defensively, they will be as strong as ever.  Any college football power rating system will likely rank Virginia Tech very close to the top heading into next season.

Tags: College Football, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, NCAA, Preseason College Football Rankings, University of Nebraska, Virginia Tech by Tommy
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According to news reports, UGA QB Logan Gray is mulling a transfer after being named the back up quarterback heading into summer.  From the USA Today:

Two weeks ago, Georgia wrapped up spring practice with three candidates for the quarterback job. The Bulldogs could be down to one with junior Logan Gray considering a transfer after freshman Aarron Murray was named the starter.

Gray’s departure would follow the dismissal of Zach Mettenberger, who was kicked off the team earlier this month for violating team rules.

Georgia coach Mark Richt is hoping to talk Gray into staying. The pair met on Monday night. Associate athletics director Claude Felton said of Gray: ”he is weighing options for the remainder of his playing career.”

While the Bulldogs would still have current 1st string QB Aaron Murray, a move by Gray would leave the position desperately thin.  As was mentioned in the article, the expulsion of Zach Mettenberger already left them without a lot of depth, but Gray’s departure would leave no other scholarship quarterbacks on the roster with the exception of Murray, who is a RS freshman.  They do have signee Hutson Mason, a highly touted HS quarterback, joining the team in the fall, but that will leave UGA with no experience at the most important position on the field. 

Murray may turn out to be a great quarterback, but any coach would tell you that depth and game experience are vital and without Gray, UGA has none.

Tags: College Football, Mark Richt, NCAA, Southeastern Conference, University of Georgia, recap, rumor mill, transfer by Tommy
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As we have already looked at the three main favorites for the BCS title, according to the Vegas Odds, let’s examine the next round of contenders.  These teams may not be considered as much of a lock as the top 3, but according to most college football power rankings, they will be right in the mix come January.

Round 2- The Top Contenders:

With odds to win the National Championship at 11:1, the next round of contenders is led by the University of Southern California.  Like some of the other teams that are in this round, USC’s high ranking is based more upon reputation, at this point, as opposed to any real certainty.  With all the excitement that has followed the Trojans in the offseason, they could easily sink faster than Jimmy Clausen on draft day.  New head coach Lane Kiffin is still an unknown commodity, and has some very big shoes to fill following the departure of Pete Carroll to the Seattle Seahawks.   Also gone is WR Damian Williams.  They do have some talent returning though, specifically rising sophomore QB Matt Barkley, and you can bet that most college football ranking system will have them near the top of the heap come August.

Following USC is another team with some rather large shoes that need to be filled.  Urban Meyer may still be in the drivers seat in Gainesville, but the University of Florida will be without 1st round draft pick Tim Tebow for the first time in four years, as well as his favorite target WR Riley Cooper.  Also missing will be CB Joe Haden, another 1st round draft pick.  Of course, it is safe to assume that Florida will be near the top of the SEC, which means that they will be in contention for another national title.  They will rely on new QB John Brantley to shoulder the load, which shouldn’t be that difficult, considering all the talent surrounding him.  Florida comes in with 12:1 odds, according to Football Futures. 

Right behind Florida at 14:1 are the Texas Longhorns, which is rather ironic since Texas will be without their own prolific QB/WR tandem as well.  With both QB Colt McCoy and WR Jordan Shipley heading to the NFL, Texas will have to reload.  Like USC and Florida, the Longhorns have such high odds more out of tradition and reputation rather than production out of their returners.  It’s safe to say that while Texas is definitely talented, a lot of those players have yet to truly prove themselves on the big stage.  New QB Garrett Gilbert looked overwhelmed when subbing for the injured McCoy in the BCS Title Game, which was understandable, but he will have to get used to that sort of pressure on a weekly basis, as he too has very big shoes to fill.  Were I personally ranking the Top 25, I would say that having Texas this high would be a reach.  That’s not to say that they won’t be contenders next year, but for them to be this high without a proven commodity at a number of key positions makes them a bit overrated, at this point.

Coming Up…

Round 3- The Contenders Part 2

Round 4- The Outsiders

Round 5- The Long shots

Round 6- The No Shots

Tags: College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, Colleges, Florida Gators, NCAA, Preseason College Football Rankings, Preseason Prognostications, Top 25, University of Southern California, University of Texas by Tommy
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As spring practice winds its way towards conclusion, there’s a lot of time until the players don their pads for their final summer workouts.  Coming out of spring, we wanted to look at some of the oddsmakers picks as to who are the favorites to play in the BCS title game next season. 

The Favorites:

Coming off their National Title, Alabama is the favorite to win the title again.  Since the formation of the BCS, the defending champion has started the next season ranked very highly in the polls, whether or not they lost a lot of talent from the previous season.  The good news for Alabama is… they still have a lot of talent, and the Heisman Trophy winner returning in RB Marc Ingram.  Football Futures has them at 4 to 1. 

Following right behind the Crimson Tide are the Ohio State Buckeyes, who are coming off their impressive Rose Bowl victory against the Oregon Ducks.  It is not surprising that OSU finds themselves once again ranked near the top of the favorites category.  Every year they go into a new season ranked somewhere in the Top 10, if not the favorites to win the title.  What remains to be seen is whether or not they can live up to the billing as a true contender.  The win against Oregon was a boost, but one game last season doesn’t mean that they will be able to put it all together consistently on a weekly basis, which has been their achilles heel, and QB Terrell Pryor still has a lot of questions that need to be answered.  Football Futures has them at 11:2.

The third team to be considered a top contender for the national crown heading into next season is Boise State.  The Broncos are usually overlooked because they are not in a traditional conference, but most college football power rankings will have them near the top heading into next season, as they basically return most of their key players, with the exception of star CB Kyle Wilson.  QB Kellen Moore, who finished near the top of the Heisman voting last season, returns, as does Safety Jeron Johnson.  Football Futures has Boise State at 10:1 odds.

The next entry will take a look at the other contenders…

Tags: Boise State, College Football, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, Ohio State University, Preseason College Football Rankings, Preseason Prognostications, University of Alabama by Tommy
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Many analysts expected for Redshirt Freshman Aaron Murray to eventually win the quarterback job for the Georgia Bulldogs next season, but they didn’t think the race would be this closed to being settled just a week after their spring game.  Of course, no one was counting on half of Murray’s competition to get kicked out of school.  From our good friend Tony Barnhardt at the Atlanta Journal Constitution:

**–So much for this summer’s UGA quarterback debate: What was going to be a raging quarterback debate throughout the summer—Aaron Murray vs. Zach Mettenberger—ended on Sunday when head coach Mark Richt announced that Mettenberger has been dismissed from the team. Mettenberger was already facing a minimum one-game suspension because of an arrest on alcohol-related charges earlier this Spring. Sports Information Director Claude Felton told the AJC’s Tim Tucker that there was not a new incident involving Mettenberger. It’s very unfortunate and we wish the young man well.

It’s unfortunate for the Bulldogs in a number of areas.  First of all, Murray’s other competition for the job, Logan Gray, is a good athlete.  Barnhardt believes that he’s a “splendid athlete but not an every down quarterback,” which has been the buzz on him since he arrived at UGA.  Mettenberger’s dismissal is a huge blow to their depth at the position and it could mean that Mark Richt and Offensive Coordinator Mike Bobo may be forced to keep Gray at the quarterback position instead of moving him to wide reciever, or some other position where they could fully utilize his athletic ability.  Behind Gray, the only other scholarship quarterback on the roster next season will be Freshman Hutson Mason, who has yet to arrive on campus. 

Georgia is expected to be rated highly on most preseason college football rankings (ESPN’s Mark Schlabach has them ranked 23rd going into next season).  In any case, many experts believe that they will be a Top 25 team next year.  The problem now is that if Murray struggles (as it does take time for some freshmen to adjust to the speed of the actual game), there might be no viable 2nd option other than Logan Gray, who as I mentioned earlier, isn’t really considered to be an every down quarterback. 

While Mark Richt isn’t necessarily in hot water at the moment, he needs to have a successful 2010 season, and this doesn’t help. With his team being rated highly by most college football rankings going into next season, he needs to meet expectations.

Tags: College Football, College Football Power Rankings, Law, Mark Richt, NCAA, Preseason College Football Rankings, Southeastern Conference, University of Georgia, dismissal, suspension by Tommy
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According to ACCSports.com, the FSU Seminoles and their former coach have yet to bury the hatchet:

TALLAHASSEE — There is no word yet — and a decision isn’t necessarily expected soon — whether retired football coach Bobby Bowden will accept an offer from Florida State’s administration to return and be honored before the Seminoles’ 2010 season opener against Samford.

When the game originally was scheduled, it was expected to provide a rare treat for Bowden to coach against his alma mater. (The Birmingham, Ala., school was known as Howard College when Bowden went there.) But that was before Bowden was nudged out the door in favor of new coach Jimbo Fisher.

Though both sides put on a happy face on New Year’s Day for Bowden’s final game at the Gator Bowl, the legendary coach never hid the fact that he wanted to stay on for at least one more year. And it’s no secret that when he found out that a 35th season wasn’t going to happen, Bowden’s first reaction was to tell FSU officials that he wasn’t going to coach the bowl game.

Cooler heads eventually prevailed, and that was a good thing. Bowden was able to go out with a win against West Virginia, as opposed to the pounding his team took in the regular-season finale at Florida, and the university was able to avoid the embarrassment of a messy divorce.

But that doesn’t mean Bowden is going to rush back to be honored in 2010. And who could blame him if he chooses not to? Everything about this coaching transition has been awkward, and it likely is going to remain that way for the foreseeable future.

It has been a difficult transition period, not only because Bowden was such a beloved legend in Tallahassee, but because Jimbo Fisher has effectively dismantled many of the key ingredients that Bowden had put in place. 

Dismissing assistant coaches Chuck Amato (linebackers), Dexter Carter (running backs) and Jody Allen (defensive ends) was only the beginning. Fisher also replaced strength coach Todd Stroud and has re-tooled almost every facet of the team’s support staff.

Fisher has hired mental conditioning experts to improve the team’s psyche. He has brought in a nutritionist to monitor and make changes to the players’ diets. And he has changed numerous aspects of the Seminoles’ practice regimen.

While change is inevitable under any new coaching staff, it also can be uncomfortable in a situation where the former head coach and defensive coordinator (Mickey Andrews) were legends and the new head coach worked closely with both.

It should be said that this is a new coach, and any new coach should be afforded the luxury to make every single decision when it comes to his own personnel.  Fisher has remained diplomatic, partly because were he to say that Bowden had done things the wrong way, it would be seen as criticism.

I’m sure Fisher will probably do a good job with the Seminoles, but… that whole episode left a really bad taste in my mouth.  Personally, I felt like Bowden deserved a final year as long as it had been agreed upon that he would step down at the end of the 2010-11 season.  The FSU officials saw it differently.  Where I personally differ is that although the program had slipped a bit, it’s not like they were abysmal.  They were just average.  The whole problem lies within the fact that Bowden was a victim of his own success.  If their had not been a Bobby Bowden at Florida State, then they’d probably still be celebrating mediocrity as a triumph.

Tags: Bobby Bowden, College Football, Florida State, NCAA, coaching carousel, rumor mill by Tommy
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Some pretty strong words from Coach Spurrier regarding his own job security at the University of South Carolina.  From ESPN:

Spurrier, who turns 65 next week, admits that it hasn’t gone exactly as planned at South Carolina. But he also says he hasn’t lost his edge, or his fire.

“My fire is going up,” Spurrier said. “Maybe it’s because [freshman quarterback] Connor Shaw is here and some of these other guys, these offensive linemen we’ve got coming in and [freshman running back] Marcus Lattimore, Cliff Matthews and Stephon Gilmore on defense. We’ve got some really good guys over there on defense that can play.

“Who knows what’s going to happen? But we still have hope we can win an SEC championship.”

One thing that won’t happen, according to Spurrier, is that he would ever allow the program to get to a level where he’s forced out or even fired.

“If it starts going bad, that’s when a coach who’s been there for a while … that’s when he’s got to say, ‘It’s just not working,’” Spurrier said. “One thing that’s important to me as a coach is that I never want to be fired. It may not bother a lot of people. But, personally, I’d like to retire from coaching and the university isn’t going to owe me a lot of money, because I’ll be finished. I don’t ever want to be paid for not working.”

I don’t think that Spurrier will have to worry about his own job security.  The fact is that Urban Meyer or Nick Saban would probably win 7 or 8 games a year at South Carolina.  The problem that has plagued Spurrier in his current job is that South Carolina can’t recruit itself the way the University of Florida could in his heyday.  The man can still coach, and it will be interesting to see how they perform next year with a legitimate 5* RB to play beside a still improving Garcia.

Tags: College Football, Hot Seat, NCAA, Steve Spurrier, University of South Carolina, coaching carousel by Tommy
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As the earlier spring games start to wrap up, there’s particular stat that really stands out from this past weekend:

15 of 19 passes for 201 yards. 2 TD

No, those aren’t numbers from any of the returning big names, unless someone who rarely saw any action last season qualifies.  Those numbers belong to the quarterback who is to follow in the footsteps of Tebow. 

Brantley has had his share of hype, and a great performance in a spring game does not mean that it will automatically translate into regular season success.  However, the young quarterback obviously went into the Florida spring game with all eyes on him and a lot of hype to live up to, and he delivered in fine fashion.

Florida fans love Tim Tebow.  Actually, that’s an understatement.   A large number of them spent the last four years idolizing Tim Tebow.  In some ways, it is similar to the idolation that followed Peyton Manning during his four years at the University of Tennessee.  Of course, if Brantley can pull a Tee Martin, then Gainesville will be satisfied.  Anything less will be considered a disappointment.

Tags: College Football, Florida Gators, NCAA, Southeastern Conference, Spring Game, Urban Meyer, spring practice by Tommy
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From all indications that have come out of the Volunteers spring practice, it appears as though Nick Stephens decision to transfer was nothing more than writing on the wall, as junior college transfer Matt Simms appears to be the new favorite to take over for the graduated Jonathan Crompton.

It’s been a long two years for the University of Tennessee.  At this point last year, a lot of the Volunteer fans were hoping that Stephens would actually win the job over Crompton.  Of course, Crompton then executed a near miraculous turnaround and even though he is not considered a high draft pick, he has been rated as one of the top quarterbacks in the upcoming draft by some experts, including The Sporting News.

Although Stephens would not likely have performed a Cromptonesque-type turnaround his senior season, his departure leaves a void.  The Tennessee Volunteers are young, inexperienced, and very thin on the depth chart.  One can always expect some players to leave a program after a coaching change, but the Vols are on their third coach in three years and the program can not afford any more defections.   

It could be a very long time before UT is able to rebuild their program to the expected standards of their fanbase.  The truth is that the firing of Philip Fulmer and the decisions made by the Athletic Department following his departure are directly responsible for this mess.  One can debate whether or not letting go of Fulmer was the right decision for days and still not come to any satisfactory conclusions, but Athletics Director Mike Hamilton’s choice of Lane Kiffin as the next coach turned out to be a disaster. 

That’s not to say that Kiffin is a bad coach.  The  jury is still out, but there’s no arguing the fact that the Vols were an improved football team last season.  However, Kiffin’s decision to abandon the program after only one season has effectively wiped out any sort of progress the program made on his watch because of the turnover rate that happened under him… and the number of players left on the team who are talented enough to contribute in the SEC level keeps getting smaller and smaller.  The small buyout clause in Kiffin’s contract may have been the biggest mistake Mike Hamilton could have made. 

Derek Dooley may turn out to be a very good choice, but it would take anyone years to clean up the mess left by Kiffin, Mike Hamilton, and the University of Tennessee.  The college game may have passed Philip Fulmer by, but consequences of his firing have left a mess that will take years to clean up.

Tags: College Football, Derek Dooley, Hot Seat, Lane Kiffin, NCAA, Southeastern Conference, University of Tennessee, Vols, coaching carousel, spring practice, transfer by Tommy
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