Kickoff Zone College Football Blog

The college football headlines are coming at such a furious pace today that we hope that we will be able to bring you some more analysis later in the day, especially concerning the USC ruling handed down by the NCAA.

What is ironic is the USC, the “Glamorous University” may see it’s penalties pushed to the back of the sports pages because the bohemoth known as conference re-allignment is rolling across the college landscape like a steamroller, making pancakes out of once powerful conferences.

The first school to make the jump hasn’t made it official yet, but will do so on Friday, according to numerous news reports.  That’s right- Nebraska is moving to the Big Ten, while we expect for the University of Colorado to make the jump to the PAC 10 soon.

This is a move for power.  One article that has been raising quite a furor across forums over the last few days is this one by Dan Wetzel, of Yahoo Sports.

According to Wetzel, the Big 12 blew it by siding with the Big Ten in their opposition to a playoff system proposed by the SEC and the ACC when they voted on the proposition in April of 2008.  I think that Wetzel is right when he states that this is purely a power play by Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany. 

I guess all one has to do is look at the Big Ten’s record in the BCS Championship Game over the last few years to understand why it had no desire to enter into a proposed playoff.  Big Ten champion Ohio State got absolutely waxed by SEC powers Florida and LSU in consecutive years. 

In fact, the Big Ten has only claimed one national championship since the BCS was implemented before the 1998 college football season, and OSU’s title was won on a rather controversial call in overtime. 

Big Ten czar Delany knows that were a playoff system implemented, the cash flow would suffer because his conference, as it now stands, doesn’t have the top end muscle.  It’s all about the money, and if the Big Ten had not been able to rely on their yearly guarantee of a Rose Bowl berth, then the cash flow would’ve been a lot smaller.

Tags: Big 10 Conference, Big XII Conference, College Football, College Football Power Rankings, Conference realignment, NCAA, Schedule, Southeastern Conference, University of Colorado, University of Nebraska, bcs, pac 10, recap, rumor mill by Tommy
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It seems as though all the recent conversations about college football in the media have revolved around the rumors of expansion.  In fact, there have been some outright nutty ideas being thrown out there.  In some instances, I can understand that a little expansion may be beneficial to college football, at least in it’s current FCS set up, but some of the talk right now coming from a few conferences appears to be based out of greed, and not what would be beneficial to the game itself.

From the Seattle Times:

In a move that could herald a historic change in the makeup of the Pac-10, conference commissioner Larry Scott was given approval Sunday to pursue expansion.

The approval, given by conference presidents and chancellors on the final day of Pac-10 meetings in San Francisco, means Scott can proceed with expansion plans without returning to the board for further consent.

“It’s exciting that we are being very proactive,” Washington athletic director Scott Woodward said Sunday night. “And Larry can continue to do his due diligence and look at various scenarios. It could be status quo or it could be a super-conference — you just don’t know what could happen. But everyone’s feeling is very good.”

And while, as Woodward notes, there are many options that expansion could take, most of the speculation has centered on the possibility of the conference inviting six Big 12 teams — Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Colorado — to join the Pac-10. That would create two eight-team divisions: Washington and Washington State in what would essentially be the old Pac-8, along with USC, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, California and Stanford; and the six Big 12 teams with Arizona and Arizona State in the other division. That would set up a potentially lucrative football conference title game, the site of which potentially could alternate between the Rose Bowl and the new Cowboys Stadium in Dallas.

With rumors swirling about both the Pac 10 and the Big 10 expanding to a possible 16 teams, one has to consider the fact that it would not be good for college football.  First of all, it would effectively be the end of the Big 12 as a major conference.  Regionally, it doesn’t mesh.  Why would anyone place a football team from Norman, Oklahoma in a league called the Pacific 10?  What’s next: Michigan joining the Southeastern Conference? 

Traditionally, each of the major conferences were formed based on regional locations.  The Big 10 was based in the NE/Rustbelt, the Pac 10 on the west coast, the SEC in the southeast, the Big 12 in the Tri-state area, while the ACC and Big East are eastern region hybrids.  Taking one school and just adding it to a conference because it is a traditional power puts too much on the fans of those teams. 

What these proposed expansion ideas will undoubtedly do is put a lot more of the burden onto the shoulders of the fans of these prospective schools.  In today’s economy, it is difficult enough for the dedicated fan to travel within their school’s region to attend a couple of away games.  If that fan is lucky, he might be able to scrape together enough cash to be able to attend a bowl game at a far off location.  With this idea, many fans just won’t be able to afford the costs of travel to follow their teams as closely, were a school from Missouri, Nebraska, or Oklahoma to join the Pac 10.  If  a team currently from the Big 12  joined the Pac 10, these schools would have away games at schools such as Oregon State, UCLA, USC, Oregon, Stanford, or even Washington, possibly in the same season.  Unless you can afford your own private jet, it’s a ridiculous proposition.

College football is a game that finds much of its popularity through its traditions and regional rivalries.  It’s no coincidence that some of the most heated and passionate rivalries are either instate or a border war. 

Florida/Florida State, Alabama/Auburn, Georgia/Georgia Tech, Tennessee/Alabama, Georgia/Florida, Texas/Oklahoma, Oklahoma/Nebraska, USC/UCLA, Texas/Texas A & M, Ole Miss/Mississippi State, Clemson/South Carolina, UNC/Duke, Louisville/Kentucky… These are some of the biggest rivalries in college sports, and are all either border wars or two teams from the same state.  While a yearly USC/Oklahoma matchup would garner national attention because of the tradition of both programs, the level of intensity and passion would not be the same from a fan’s perspective.

Some expansion does make sense.  For example, were two teams, such as Notre Dame and Pittsburgh to join the Big 10, you would have enough teams to go to a two division format, with a conference championship game in December, or if BYU and Utah joined the Pac 10.  Expansion should logistically (as well as economically) make sense, but some of these scenarios being tossed around do neither.

Dan Wetzel sums it up best:

Conference expansion is about to forever alter college athletics: destroying traditions, hammering taxpayers and increasing competition. It will leave once-major programs out of the loop, consolidate power and extend the gap between haves and have nots – even within leagues such as the Big Ten.

Tags: Big 10 Conference, Big XII Conference, College Football, College Football Power Rankings, NCAA, Oklahoma University, Schedule, Southeastern Conference, Top 25, University of Colorado, University of Nebraska, University of Texas, bcs, pac 10, recap, rumor mill by Tommy
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For the last few weeks, it seems that the college football world has been consumed with talks of league expansion, specifically in reference to the Big 10 conference.  What interests us here at the Kickoffzone blog is how that will affect the movers and shakers, in terms of how it could affect their power rankings, or in other words, whether it will have a positive or negative affect on their chances to play in a BCS bowl game or the National Championship Game. 

The Sporting News is taking a specific look at how the movements could affect each specific conference, in regards to their BCS bidding power and their attraction to the game representatives.  Concerning the Big XII, they have this to say:

The only scenario that could severely damage the Big 12: The Big Ten takes any combination of Nebraska, Oklahoma and Missouri, and the Pac 10 takes Colorado. At that point, Texas would be forced to look at other options despite its long-term goal of a healthy, prosperous Big 12.

Concerning the Pac-10:

Count the Pac-10 as proactive in the search for more dollars. In February, less than seven months after taking charge, new commissioner Larry Scott said the league would “very seriously” consider adding two schools.

Colorado has emerged as the most popular candidate, but the Pac-10’s biggest jackpot would come from adding Texas and Texas A&M. No other set of potential television markets, including Denver, Salt Lake City (with Utah and BYU) and Las Vegas (UNLV) would carry the Lone Star State’s economic sway.

Even if the Pac-10 doesn’t expand, it could instigate a significant college football change. Scott has said the league will consider proposing NCAA legislation that would allow for a conference championship game in a 10-team league. Current legislation mandates that leagues include at least 12 teams, split into two divisions, to host a title game.

If one were to break down the conferences by tradition, they would have to rank the Pac 10, the Big 10, and the SEC as the standard bearers.  They’ve been around much longer than the Big XII, and have generally produced the most revenue in television deals (with the exception of independent Notre Dame).  Considering how two are now apparently considering expansion, how would the SEC, generally considered the most dominant conference in the country, respond?  Tony Barnhart writes that the SEC can not ignore what goes on in these other conferences:

So why mess with a great thing? Why not let the Big Ten do its thing while the SEC keeps doing what has made it so successful?

Here’s why: “If you are a commissioner your No. 1 job is not to take care of today,” said former SEC commissioner Roy Kramer. “Your No. 1 job is to look at least 10 years down the road to where your conference is going to be and where the competition is going to be.”

SEC Commissioner Mike Slive told me recently that the his conference will have a plan in place should the Big Ten expand to 16 teams, which could totally change the landscape of college athletics as we know it in just a few years. The SEC may never execute the plan, but there will be a plan.

That’s right, folks.  If you thought the current BCS system wasn’t complicated enough, well, think again…  College football is big business.  In the end, the powers that be will always want to have the top two teams playing for the title, whether it be through a playoff or a power ranking system.  However, for that to ever work, there will be a whole lot of red tape that will need to be cut through to ever make that dream a reality.

Tags: Big 10 Conference, Big XII Conference, College Football, College Football Power Rankings, NCAA, Oklahoma University, Preseason Prognostications, Schedule, Southeastern Conference, University of Colorado, University of Missouri, University of Nebraska, University of Texas, bcs, rumor mill by Tommy
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More and more rumblings are coming out about the possible addition of new teams to the Big 10.  Herb Gold, of the Chicago Sun-Times, believes that the conference will add as many as three teams:

My best guess? The Big Ten will add three teams. That will allow it to keep a slot open in case Notre Dame, which will continue to remain independent, changes its mind down the road.

The leading candidates? Missouri, Nebraska and Colorado to the west and Rutgers, Syracuse and UConn to the east.

What will this mean? Think about Big East basketball. More teams mean more good teams, but it also means that more programs will become irrelevant and that fans will have to understand fifth place is a really good thing. Rivalries will be watered down as Illinois and Northwestern play more games against Nebraska and Rutgers and fewer against Michigan and Ohio State.

The Orlando Sentinel speculates that Texas is the school that Big 10 officials have their sights set on:

Speculation has focused on a whole host of teams, including Texas — the biggest fish in all of the superconference expansion talk. It’s no coincidence the school is working on a contract extension for athletic director DeLoss Dodds. But why would Texas join a league without its biggest rivals? See above: M-O-N-E-Y.

Keith Fleicher, of Fox Sports Southwest, reports that his sources indicate Missouri will undoubtedly make the move from the Big 12:

            “If it were just about the money or athletics alone it wouldn’t be worth it; and a lot of our coaches recognize that, cutting recruiting ties to Texas, and so forth,” one of my more trusted and well-connected people in Missouri athletics administration told me. “But it’s hard to ignore the academic thing and it’s academic people who eventually make the call on this thing.”

            Missouri is one of the 63 members of the American Association of Universities, as are the existing 11 members of the Big 10 Conference. From the Big 12, only Texas A&M, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa State and Texas have met the AAU’s academic standards to join the likes of Harvard, Yale, MIT and Cornell in its club.

            The money issue is still out there. Missouri people will quickly tell you that last year the chunk of money it received from the Big 12 Conference was about $12 million less than what it would have received as a member of the Big 10. But, more and more people who believe that it is academics that will ultimately tilt the scales.

            “I’d be beyond shocked if we didn’t make the move to the Big 10 Conference,” my source said.  .

While dollars are obviously the major factor in expansion, Tracee Hamilton, of the Washington Post, points out the logistical nightmares that would be created for certain teams were they to join:

Ah, yes, driving to the game. Regional proximity used to matter. In the Big Eight, when I was in school, you could drive to any other campus in the Big Eight in eight to nine hours, max. Most were much closer. And people did. Nebraska and Oklahoma fans in particular would load up their RVs and come to town early on game days. They’d drive through campus, past the dorms, the scholarship halls, the frats and sororities and dive apartments, blowing their horns, which happened to play their fight songs. Fun.

Who in his right mind would drive from Lincoln, Neb., to Piscataway, N.J.? Even the most crazed Huskers fans would think twice. And how are schools supposed to get their bands, cheerleaders and — more important — mascots to the far-away games? And yes, that matters. Those are the ingredients that go into a great college football experience.

I happen to agree with Ms. Hamilton on this issue.  The proposed mergers could easily create more problems than it will solve, and will hurt attendence.  The television deals that come with it may offset the financial dent caused by hazardous travel plans, but what these schools must focus on is that this could create a lag in enthusiasm by long time local supporters.  Considering the shape that the economy is in, it wouldn’t make much sense to ask your faithful to dole out more dollars to follow their favored teams half way across the United States.

Tags: Big 10 Conference, Big XII Conference, College Football, College Football Power Rankings, NCAA, Ohio State University, Preseason Prognostications, Schedule, Top 25, University of Missouri, University of Nebraska, University of Texas, rumor mill by Tommy
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“We’re getting tired of their act.  It’s starting to tick people off.”

Those words are from the mouth of a Big XII official, in regards to the latest talk of the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Missouri Tigers possibly leaving their conference to join the Big 10.  From Dave Sittler of the Tulsa World:

The Big 12’s TV packages are dwarfed by deals put together by the Big Ten and SEC. The huge success of The Big Ten Network has enabled that league, which shares revenue equally, to pay its members $22 million a year generated in football compared to the $7 to $11 million in the Big 12.

“Our hope would be that the (Big 12),” Alden told the Columbia Tribune, “would continue to push harder in those areas for a new television contract for more exposure and for equal revenue distribution.”

The Big 12’s deal with ABC/ESPN runs through 2016, and its contract with Fox lasts through 2012. The Big Ten and SEC, meanwhile, will continue to maintain a healthy revenue edge until the Big 12 can negotiate new deals.

So what’s the Big 12 to do to keep its league intact? That question has prompted some to question what conference commissioner Dan Beebe is doing to secure the Big 12’s future.

“He’s doing a heck of a lot more than people think,” one Big 12 source said. “Even though you don’t hear it a lot, don’t assume there aren’t some really serious conversations going on behind the scenes.”

It became obvious late last week that Beebe has indeed been quietly working hard to create new revenue streams. It was reported Friday that ADs and commissioners from the Big 12 and Pac-10 held three days of meetings in Phoenix to discuss the possibility of an alliance.

Both conferences have cable deals with Fox that expire in 2012. They could then join forces in forging new TV contracts and creating some blockbuster matchups.

“It would open up all kinds of possibilities on what we could do schedule-wise,” Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott told the Los Angeles Times. “This (discussion) will progress at a brisk pace.”

Some speculate that news of a possible Big 12-Pac-10 alliance was purposely leaked to send a strong message to both the Big Ten and schools making noise about changing conference affiliations.

Is it time for Big 12 movers and shakers to tell Nebraska and Missouri to either get on board so the conference can present a united front or get the heck out?

“That feeling is starting to grow,” a Big 12 source said. “We have to find a way to work towards the best interest of the conference, because we’re much stronger together than individually.”

Money talks.  Sittler mentions that neither Nebraska nor Missouri have felt entirely at home in the Big XII conference.  Nebraska AD has “never been an enthusiastic supporter” of the Big XII, while Missouri have always pushed for more revenue sharing and a restructured television plan.  MO has a pretty good case, if you look at the details:

Missouri has never been a totally happy conference camper. The Tigers remain frustrated over the league’s football revenue-sharing plan, which they believe strongly favors Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska.

Half the football television money is split evenly, while the other half is divided up based on TV appearances. Missouri argues that the plan strongly favors the Sooners, Longhorns and Huskers.

Those three schools counter by challenging Mizzou and other Big 12 schools to make their football programs powerful enough to attract TV attention.

Fascinating stuff.  Were those two schools to leave the Big XII, then what would happen to Texas and Oklahoma?  The loss of Nebraska and Missouri from their conference would damage the conference power ratings and negatively influence their BCS chances on a yearly basis.  Although I’m sure Nebraska would remain on Oklahoma’s schedule, considering the rivalry, it would concievably pull the rest of the conference power numbers down in most of the computer polls, especially those which equate the strength of schedule into the equation.

Welcome to the world of the B(c)S…

Tags: Big 10 Conference, Big XII Conference, College Football, College Football Power Rankings, NCAA, University of Missouri, University of Nebraska, rumor mill by Tommy
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Our college football power rankings breakdown, which is more of a “look-ahead” towards the upcoming season by breaking down the current odds for teams to win the BCS, continues with Round 3.  In this round, we look at teams who are “the other contenders.”  These teams are not overwhelming favorites like those in Round 1, and aren’t necessarily the next in line like the ones in round 2.  They are the teams who could easily find themselves playing for a national championship if one of the teams in front of them falters, at least according to the odds.

Round 3:  The Other Contenders

Round 3 begins with a team that whose odds are 15:1- the University of Nebraska.  How the Cornhuskers find themselves with odds this high is beyond me.  They were a solid, but not spectacular, team last season with one superstar defensive lineman… who graduated.  They return most of their key players on the offensive side of the ball, but they weren’t all that impressive offensively when playing quality opponents.  In their favor, they do return QB Zach Lee and their leading rusher.  They also return most of their defense as well, with the exception of DT Ndamukong Suh.

Following the Cornhuskers with odds of 17:1 are the Virginia Tech Hokies.  Unlike Nebraska, there’s little doubt about Va. Tech’s returning talent.  Personally, I consider them to be a Top 6 team heading into next season with a real shot at playing for the BCS title.  On the offensive side of the ball, the Hokies are… loaded.  There are at least 3 players who could be considered Heisman contenders going into next season, although their running backs will likely have to split carries.  Tyrod Taylor has slowly matured into an excellent QB, and should be a household name by next season.  Va Tech returns their leading rushers from the last two seasons.  In 2008, Darren Evans rushed for 1265 yards as a true freshman,   and going into last season, he was expected to be one of the best tailbacks in the country, but an injury forced him to redshirt.  In his place, true freshman Ryan Williams rushed for 1538 yards.  With both of their tailbacks healthy and their top two leading recievers from last year all returning, Tech will be loaded on offense.  Defensively, they will be as strong as ever.  Any college football power rating system will likely rank Virginia Tech very close to the top heading into next season.

Tags: College Football, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, NCAA, Preseason College Football Rankings, University of Nebraska, Virginia Tech by Tommy
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