Kickoff Zone College Football Blog

It will be tough to match the excitement level of last weeks Boise State/Virginia Tech match up, but this weeks pick for the game of the week isn’t likely to disappoint either.

This weekend two of the nations top programs face off with the University of Miami visiting the Ohio State University. 

Both teams are led by a legit Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback, with Terrelle Pryor under center for the Buckeyes and Jacory Harris taking the snaps for the Hurricanes.  Both quarterbacks have dual threat abilities, but while Pryor is better on the move and more explosive running with the football, Harris has the advantage when throwing out of the pocket and is the more polished quarterback of the two(in the traditional sense), but is not a threat to tuck the ball and run… although he does have the natural ability to do so.

Defensively, Miami is led by DL Allen Bailey and DB Brandon Harris, and Ohio State will count on Cameron Heyward to lead their “bend but don’t break” defense, which will give up yards, but very strong in the red zone.

In the end, this game will come down to which quarterback can handle the pressure of the opposing team’s defense.  Both Harris and Pryor were extremely inconsistent at times last season, but I would have to give the slight advantage to Harris, at this point, as he has shown the ability to win games throwing the football downfield on numerous occasions last season, while Pryor never broke 300 yards passing last season.

Tags: Atlantic Coast Conference, Big 10 Conference, College Football, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, Heisman Watch, Jacory Harris, NCAA, Ohio State University, Rankings, Schedule, Terrelle Pryor, Top 25, University of Miami, bcs, odds, recap by Tommy
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With Boise State’s victory over Virginia Tech Monday night, numerous sportswriters, including ones at the NY Times, are contemplating what effect it may have on the BCS championship.  Berry Tramel writes:

Only this time, Boise State might sail right into the national championship game. Which has everyone all atwitter, claiming that Boise State’s schedule isn’t worthy of championship consideration.

To which there’s an easy solution. Schedule the Broncos.

OU and Texas and Alabama and Florida and Ohio State and every other perennial title contender realizes that the two spots available could shrink to one if Boise State runs the table. In years past, Boise State has had to scratch and claw just to get into the top 10; had to scratch and claw just to get BCS-eligible and play in a non-title major bowl…

Boise State will play teams. Boise State will play USC or Texas or Georgia or Iowa or anyone else home and home. They’d love to come to your place, so long as you go to theirs.

Nobody much is interested, of course, because teams want to manufacture national titles these days. They don’t want to earn them.

Sure, Boise State plays in a lousy conference, the WAC. And Boise State is doing something about that. Like leave. Boise State will join the Mountain West Conference next season. Of course, the Mountain West is losing Utah and BYU, which is a shame, because the Mountain West with Boise State, the Utah schools and TCU would be a heck of a conference.

But Boise State is doing what it can. Boise State would join the Pac-10, with an invite. Same with the Big 12.

This caste system — your schedule stinks so you’re forever banished to second-class status — is unAmerican.

I tend to agree with him.  I don’t necessarily think that Boise State is one of the top 2 teams in the country, but BCS schools shy away from playing them. 

Jim Mashek, of the Miami Sun Herald, opines that Boise State going undefeated could possibly lead to a situation where an SEC team is left out of the title game.

While it would be a crime for a team from the SEC to be left out of the NC equation, if Boise State goes undefeated again, it would also be a crime to leave any team with a two year winning streak out of the picture.

Tags: Boise State, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, Conference realignment, Florida Gators, NCAA, News, Ohio State University, Oklahoma University, Schedule, Southeastern Conference, Top 25, University of Alabama, University of Florida, University of Georgia, University of Miami, University of Oregon, University of Southern California, University of Texas, Virginia Tech, bcs, expansion, pac 10, recap by Tommy
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As they prepare to face off this weekend, both Georgia and South Carolina are still waiting on the NCAA to rule on whether or not some of their players will be available for the game.

According to Chris Lowe, Georgia is still waiting on word as to whether star WR A.J. Green will be eligible, while South Carolina waits on word for tight end Wesleye Saunders, cornerback Chris Culliver and offensive tackle Jarriel King

Tags: College Football, Infractions, NCAA, Southeastern Conference, Top 25, University of Georgia, University of South Carolina, bcs, rumor mill by Tommy
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Ole Miss quarterback Jeremiah Masoli has been cleared to play for the Rebels immediately, winning his appeal to the NCAA Subcommittee.

Tags: College Football, NCAA, Ole Miss, Southeastern Conference, Top 25, University of Mississippi by Tommy
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Last night (the first night of the college football season), we learned a couple of things.

First-  South Carolina has enough talent and abiilty to win the SEC. 

Since last season, I have been warning other analysts not to underestimate the Gamecocks this season.  When voting in the media preseason poll, I picked them to finish 2nd in the SEC East ahead of Georgia and behind Florida.  I was laughed at, but I’m not paid to be a fan of one team on Saturdays– I’m paid to know what is going on in this sport.  The fact is that Stephen Garcia is a year older and has more experience in a Steve Spurrier offense, and possibly the best WR corps in the Eastern Division at his disposal.

Second- RB Marcus Lattimore lived up to the hype as the #1 ranked RB out of high school (by numerous publications). 

The kid is for real and has the potential to be a really special player for Steve Spurrier.  On top of that, when you read about all the drama that took place just hours before kickoff.

Personally, I think the Gamecocks could potentially beat the mighty Gators, but you don’t pick against Florida in a poll like that until it has been proven that they can be beaten, and they have won the east for consecutive years now.

Third- Monte Kiffin has a lot of work to do on defense. 

Giving up 36 points to Hawaii is no way to start off the new regime.  Overall, it was an unimpressive debut for the new regime at Southern Cal, and to be honest, they need to win big this season because it’s going to be a long couple of years in Los Angeles with all the sanctions put in place by the NCAA.

Fourth-  Two Heisman Trophy candidates looked like… well… Heisman Trophy candidates…

The only slightly disappointing performance last night came from Pitt RB Dion Lewis (cough… yes, my top preseason candidate…).  Utah was able to knock off the Pittsburgh Panthers at home, while Lewis failed to break 100 yards rushing.  There were no letdowns from either Terrelle Pryor or Miami’s Jacory Harris though.  Both threw the ball with poise and accuracy in their season debuts, putting up impressive numbers.

Tags: College Football, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, Heisman Watch, Jacory Harris, NCAA, Ohio State University, Rankings, Schedule, Southeastern Conference, Stephen Garcia, Steve Spurrier, Terrelle Pryor, Top 25, University of Pittsburgh, University of South Carolina, University of Southern Miss, University of Utah, bcs, odds, recap by Tommy
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It’s finally here.  College football officially begins tonight with Southern Miss traveling to Columbus, SC to face off with the University of South Carolina  Gamecocks.  Unlike some BCS programs, South Carolina usually opens their season against a decent midmajor program, and Southern Miss is one of the most consistent winners among that category.  Our #1st edition of this season’s Kickoff weekly newsletter has only a 4.8 point difference in the two programs power ratings to open the year, which would indicate that it may be a tough game for the favored Gamecocks.

Were one to pay attention to all the news throughout the spring and summer concerning South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback Stephen Garcia, you could be forgiven to think that this former prized prospect has been the recruiting bust of the century.  In fact, that’s not the case at all.  Garcia actually put up some impressive numbers last season.  He ranked 2nd in the SEC in 220 passing yards per game, and 3rd in total offense, averaging 234 total yards per game.  It seems to escape some analysts minds that last season Garcia was a sophomore and in only his first full year as the entrenched starter.  This should be the year that Garcia finally puts everything together with the talent he has returning at WR and the addition of super recruit Marcus Lattimore at running back. 

Tonight may not be a blowout because Southern Miss does have some talent, but the Gamecocks should come out of this game victorious.

Pick: Gamecocks by 6+

Tags: College Football, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, NCAA, Schedule, Southeastern Conference, Stephen Garcia, Steve Spurrier, Top 25, University of South Carolina, University of Southern Miss, bcs, odds by Tommy
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As most of our readers probably know by this point, Brigham Young University announced that it will leave the MWC and declare itself an independent last night.

It wasn’t a logical move.  I mean… to put it bluntly… who cares?  BYU is not Notre Dame.  They don’t have the Catholic appeal that would attract an NBC to cover their home games, their program does not have the tradition of Notre Dame, nor do they have the backroom muscle of the Irish to strongarm BCS officials into accepting them into a major bowl game.

Even the hometown Salt Lake Tribune seems to be a bit lukewarm on the matter.  Personally, I can’t decide if they are just delusional or delusionally arrogant. 

Don’t get me wrong, BYU has some tradition and history, and can boast of a national championship and stars such as Steve Young and Jim McMahon. 

Our latest issue of the Kickoff has some interesting statistics concerning the winningest programs of each of the past four decades, and if you look at BYU, you just don’t see the type of authority they need to be taken seriously as an independent.  They were the 3rd winningest program of the 1980s, but during that run, they were nationally ranked only 81 out of 159 AP polls that were released during that time period.

In other words, the 3rd winningest program of the 1980s was only ranked in the Top 25 roughly 50% of the decade.  Compare that to Ohio State, the 16th winningest program of the 1980s, but were ranked in 110 out of the 159 AP polls that were released during the decade.  BYU won 79.1% of their games in the 80’s, but were ranked in 50% of the polls.  In comparison, Ohio State won 69% of their games, but were ranked in 69% of the AP polls.  The University of Southern California were the 18th winningest program of the 1980s, winning 67.9% of their games in the 1980s, but were ranked in 72% of the AP polls released.  Even Southern Methodist University were ranked for roughly the same amount of time during BYU’s winningest decade, and SMU had to deal with being handed the “death penalty” by the NCAA during that timeframe.

The point of these statistics is this…  if you don’t have enough respect on a national level, nobody is going to pay attention to you when you aren’t winning conference championships.  Look at the Army and Navy football programs. 

Yes, the ultimate goal of the BYU program is to gain acceptance into the Pac 10, and by becoming an independent, they likely want to prove to the conference powers that be that they carry enough weight on their own to warrant an inclusion.  However that may play out, I don’t see it ever happening.

Tags: BYU, Brigham Young University, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, Mountain West Conference, NCAA, Notre Dame University, Preseason Prognostications, Schedule, Top 25, bcs, expansion, recap, rumor mill by Tommy
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The college football season begins tomorrow, so it’s time to get everything out there.  The week one game of the week…

Boise State vs. Virginia Tech (in Landover, MD)

This week’s choice is rather obvious, as it is the only matchup between two top 10 teams and national title contenders.  While Boise State has been talked up as possibly the first team from outside of a BCS conference to play for the national title, Virginia Tech has flown somewhat under the national radar, but are never far from the conversation, and this year they should near the top with the talent they are returning.

Week One Pick- Virginia Tech by 3+  (meaning that I think they will win by at least three points, but maybe a bit more)

It’s not that I think Boise State is overrated, but that Virginia Tech has been criminally underrated by a number of preseason publications, as they would easily be in my Top 5 to start the year.

Tags: Boise State, College Football, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, Nick Saban, Preseason Prognostications, Schedule, The Kickoff, Top 25, Virginia Tech, bcs, odds by Tommy
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Yesterday, Jeff Sagarin unveiled his preseason rankings for the upcoming college football season.  For those who don’t know who Sagarin is or the weight he carries in the BCS system, here is a refresher:

Jeff Sagarin has been providing power ratings and player ratings to USA TODAY since 1985. A mathematics graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology(1970) and MBA from Indiana University in 1983, Sagarin has applied his unique ranking system to college football, college basketball, Major League Baseball, pro football, pro basketball, pro hockey, volleyball, nascar, soccer and several other sports.Sagarin’s college basketball rankings have proven their value to theNCAA tournament selection committee. Since 1984, Sagarin has supplied the committee — at its request — with his latest rankings at the beginning of the tournament selection process and with regular updates until the selections have been finalized. Sagarin’s rankings form the basis of Play to Win, a unique game of skill and sports knowledge. He and a close-knit circle of friends and colleagues in his Midwestern town have been playing the game, just for fun, for several years. Now, through the World Wide Web, the game goes global. In addition, beginning in the fall of 1998, Jeff’s college football ratings became an official part of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) team selection process.

Here are Sagarin’s Top 25 preseason rankings:

1- Florida 94.84
2- Texas 91.86
3- Alabama 90.81
4- Southern California 90.22
5- Oklahoma 89.40
6- Ohio State 89.27
7- Virginia Tech 87.71
8- LSU- 86.99
9- TCU 86.53
10- Penn State 86.40
11- Oregon 85.51
12- Boise State 85.4
13- Georgia 84.02
14- Texas Tech 83.19
15- Utah 82.61
16- Nebraska 82.5
17- Clemson 82.22
18- Iowa 82.2
19- BYU 82.05
20- West Virginia 82.02
21- Oregon State 81.4
22- Cincinnati 81.27
23- Florida State 80.84
24- California 80.46
25- Georgia Tech 80.46

Like many of the other ranking systems, this one leaves me scratching my head a bit.  He has Georgia Tech all the way down at #25, but Florida and Texas are his top 2 teams after both losing Heisman Trophy candidates at quarterback  (and a former winner in Tim Tebow)?  While Alabama returns last season’s Heisman Trophy Winner, as well as their starting qb and most of their key playmakers, but are ranked #3?  This is probably the lowest I’ve seen Ohio State ranked in any preseason rankings or polls that have been released thus far, and the highest ranking I’ve seen for Southern California.

This is why the BCS recieves the yearly criticism that it does.  Along with the preseason polls, these things have way too much power in choosing who plays for the national title.  In the case of the human polls, people will rely too much on which teams were considered to be title contenders at the beginning of the season, making it more difficult for a team that comes out of nowhere to make the title game.

On the other hand, computer programs have no way of making their decisions by anything other than formulas or mathematical factors, which takes all the human factors out of the processs.

Tags: College Football, College Football Picks, College Football Power Rankings, Florida Gators, NCAA, Preseason College Football Rankings, Preseason Prognostications, Rankings, Schedule, Top 25, University of Florida, bcs, odds, recap by Tommy
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The countdown to the kickoff of the 2010 college football season has finally hit single digits.  This year will be an important one for lots of programs, but perhaps none moreso than LSU’s coach Les Miles.  There is an article that sums up the feelings in Baton Rouge quite well at this link.

After winning the BCS national championship in 2007, Miles and company have recorded seasons of 8-5 and 9-4, and the wolves are out for his football hide in Baton Rouge.

A series of bad judgments with the hiring of assistant coaches, a poor offensive philosophy, fingers being pointed in Miles’ direction for getting involved in offensive play-calling, not properly playing talented underclassmen and sticking with underachieving juniors and seniors has landed Miles on the hot seat, despite a 51-15 record at LSU.

That’s right, the man who led the Bayou Bengals to the BCS Title just a few years ago is apparently on the hot seat.  This season, Miles has added another couple of new faces to his coaching staff, including former Florida WR Coach Billy Gonzales and former Tennessee RB coach Frank Wilson. 

I’m also think Jordan Jefferson will finally perform up to his ability, after an inconsistent season last year as the starting quarterback. 

With Jefferson, it is not a question of talent, but consistency on his part, showing more poise in crucial spots during a game and having an offense geared to playing to his strength.

When Miles dismissed talented, but troubled quarterback Ryan Perrilloux off the team in the spring of 2008, he did the right thing for his team, but what he failed to do was protect his two young quarterbacks in Jefferson and Jarrett Lee with an offense geared more to a run-oriented attack.

Lots of schools have passionate fans who put pressure on a program to perform up to a certain level on a yearly basis.  LSU’s fans, though, may be the most ”hardcore” in major college football.  Nick Saban brought the Tigers back from obscurity, and Miles’ early success continued on that.  These days, LSU always has one of the top recruiting classes in the nation, and the fans believe with all the talent on their squad, Miles should be able to plug in fresh, young players with little drop off. 

Quarterbacks need to be developed slowly, without putting too much pressure on their shoulders when they have yet to gain the experience necessary to make crucial decisions on the playing field.  Jefferson has the talent to be a top flight QB, but offensive coordinator Gary Crowton must tailor the playcalling to suit the strengths of quarterback, and that means developing a consistent running game to balance out the offense.

LSU has always had a stable full of talented running backs, but for some reason, the Tigers have been extremely inconsistent running the football for years, going back to the Saban era.  With the exception of possible exception Jacob Hester, it’s been a long time since LSU has had a running back who had a “great career” running the football.  They’ve had some great seasons, but look at Charles Scott for example, who used up his final year of eligibility last season.  After a great junior campaign two years ago, injuries and inconsistency led to subpar rushing numbers last year, and it wasn’t the first time that LSU has had a RB with that type of career over the last decade.  Personally, I think they need to find one running back and stick with him, instead relying on a committee.

The offensive wildcard is definitely sophomore WR/QB/RB Russell Shepard, who has “seemlessly” made the transition from QB to reciever as he begins his sophomore season.  Along with Shepard, the Tigers return Terrance Tolliver, one of the best recievers in the country, and talented sophomore Reuben Randle.

Before last season, Les Miles was forced to replace his DCs after subpar campaigns, but he made a brilliant move in hiring John Chavis.  On defense-

the Tigers are led by two All-American candidates in cornerback Patrick Peterson, the best cover-cornerback in the SEC since Champ Bailey was at the University of Georgia, and linebacker Kelvin Sheppard, who is capable of playing any of the three linebacker spots on defense.

One thing that may play in the Tigers favor this season is that though they are not quite as experienced as the Gators or the Crimson Tide, they should get off to a hot start with a game against nationally ranked UNC, a program in a whole lot of trouble at the moment.

Tags: College Football, College Football Power Rankings, Hot Seat, LSU, Les Miles, Louisiana State University, NCAA, Preseason College Football Rankings, Preseason Prognostications, Schedule, Southeastern Conference, Top 25, bcs, recap, rumor mill by Tommy
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